Jiahao Zhu

Jiahao Zhu

PhD Candidate in Methodology and Statistics
Leiden University, Leiden

I develop methods that help behavioral researchers interpret machine learning findings and combine evidence across studies. My PhD research builds on RuleSHAP, which combines interpretable prediction rules, Shapley values, and Bayesian uncertainty estimates. I aim to extend this framework to multilevel data and derive standardized effect sizes for meta-analysis, so that complex patterns discovered by machine learning can contribute to cumulative knowledge about human behavior.

Polymarket Prediction Accuracy: An Exploratory Analysis

Course Project · Radboud University · 2026

Analyzed prediction market accuracy using 116,000+ resolved Polymarket markets from 2025. Evaluated forecast calibration across seven domains (Sports, Crypto, Politics, etc.) via Brier Score decomposition.

Dynamic Modelling of Latent Risk-Taking using Particle Filters

Master's Thesis · Radboud University · 2025 – 2026

Challenging the assumption of risk-taking as a static trait. Developed a computational pipeline using Auxiliary Particle Filters to recover individual trial-by-trial trajectories of latent risk sensitivity.

Automatic and Motivational Avoidance in Academic Worry

Research Project Co-Lead · Radboud University · 2024 – 2025

Engineered a continuous joystick-based Approach-Avoidance Task in PsychoPy with millisecond precision to investigate cognitive mechanisms underlying academic anxiety.

Emotion Labeling Through the Lens of Predictive Coding

Position Paper (Course Project) · Radboud University · 2024

Proposed a predictive coding account to reconcile conflicting evidence on whether naming emotions dampens or intensifies them. Argued that prediction uncertainty is the key mechanism, modulated by label-experience intensity mismatch and labeling freedom.

Emotional Co-Expressions: A Network Perspective

Research Project Lead · Sun Yat-sen University · 2022 – 2024

Applied NLP to extract sentiment from 53,000+ crowdfunding texts. Constructed a novel Emotional Co-expression Network framework to quantify structural properties of emotional information.